ISTANBUL, March 29 (Xinhua) -- As geopolitical tensions in the Strait of Hormuz disrupt global supply chains, Turkish agriculture is hit hard. Farmers and experts warn that soaring fertilizer costs are now a direct threat to the country's food security.

The Strait of Hormuz serves as a global agricultural artery. According to data from the International Fertilizer Association, Gulf nations account for approximately one-third of the global export supply of urea and nitrogen-based fertilizers.

The maritime instability has hence translated into a swift 30 percent price surge for Turkish producers since the start of the war, said Halim Orta, an academic at Tekirdag Namik Kemal University and a wheat farmer in Türkiye's Thrace region.

Orta told Xinhua that the crisis has shifted from a logistical concern to a struggle for survival, adding that the price of urea rose within days from 20 to over 30 Turkish liras (0.68 U.S. dollars) per kg.

This agricultural pressure is further compounded by a volatile energy market. While diesel prices stood at approximately 60 liras (1.35 dollars) at the beginning of March, they have since skyrocketed to a peak of 80 liras (1.8 dollars) per liter -- marking a staggering 33 percent increase in fuel costs for farmers in just a few weeks.

"The combination of expensive fertilizer and 80-lira diesel has created a perfect storm for the producer," Orta said, noting that insufficient nutrients today will lead to lower yields and protein values by August. "This is a total availability crisis during the critical 30-day fertilizing window that determines the fate of the entire Turkish agricultural season."

The warnings from the fields are echoed by financial analysts who see this fertilizer shock as the primary trigger for a wave of food inflation. Turkish economist Murat Tufan describes the situation as a "vicious cycle" that goes beyond what traditional monetary policy can fix.

"We are seeing a double inflation shock where soaring fertilizer prices are compounded by record-high energy costs," Tufan explained. He noted that this is a supply-side crisis, which leaves central banks with limited options. "You cannot curb rising food costs through interest rate hikes alone when the primary drivers are external shocks to fuel and fertilizer."

Emine Olhan, an academic from Ankara University's Department of Agricultural Economics, emphasized that this disruption is more than a temporary setback -- it is a matter of national security.

"Food security is a fundamental human right," Olhan said, calling for a production-heavy strategy to break Türkiye's dependency on imports. To tackle this "existential threat," she proposed a circular farming model that integrates livestock and crop production to reduce the need for expensive, gas-based chemical fertilizers.

"We must move away from an 'import-first' mindset for staples like wheat, sugar and oil," Olhan said. Long-term stability requires more than just tax cuts, it demands a shift toward high-efficiency, resource-conscious farming that can feed the nation regardless of global or geopolitical volatility, she added. ■